About Us

Global warming is causing dramatic changes in the cryosphere, including Arctic Sea and Eurasian snow cover. These are expected to accelerate over the next decades. However, there is large uncertainty associated with anticipated future changes, in particular with regard to the extent, timing, and impacts of such changes. These uncertainties compromise the ability to plan adaptation strategies with northern communities and to develop strategies for sustained GREEN GROWTH in an era of rapid climatic and social change.

GREENICE will tackle one of the biggest uncertainties in the interaction between climate change and the cryosphere: how will climate respond to the future changes in sea-ice and snow cover?

The spate of recent extreme weather events over the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, including winter cold snaps and summer heat waves, were linked to the dramatic loss of sea ice and warming occurring in the Arctic, and to increases in Eurasian autumn and winter snow cover. Most of these changes in the cryosphere are likely to be a result of global warming, and thus may accelerate. Although observational, theoretical, and modelling studies indicate that the sea-ice and snow-cover changes have a significant impact on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and weather extremes, controversy exists regarding the magnitude of these impacts and their underlying mechanisms. In particular, natural unforced climate variability may partly explain the observed pronounced decadal climate fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere, including the recent changes in the cryosphere. Thus, the extent to which the observed extreme events were caused by cryosphere changes due to climate change or natural variability remains an open question.

By means of a thorough analysis of observations and coordinated experiments with global and regional atmospheric models, GREENICE will improve our understanding of the atmospheric response to sea-ice and snow-cover changes and our ability to predict both anthropogenic and naturally-driven changes on 10-30 year timescales.

Future changes in the cryosphere, and in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and weather extremes over the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere will, with stressors of globalization, have major socio-economic impacts, particularly in high latitudes. GREENICE will consider uncertainties due to unforced natural climate variability, and will use model formulation and global-warming scenarios to enhance forecast reliability. A more comprehensive and sophisticated interdisciplinary understanding of future changes will facilitate the ability of Arctic societies to adapt to climate change, and address problems of green-growth development.

By using case studies, GREENICE will assess vulnerability and resilience factors for specific communities, and evaluate culturally and contextually appropriate measures for effective adaptation to predicted future climate changes associated with sea-ice and snow-cover changes. GREENICE results will benefit private and public industry in the areas of renewable energy, e.g., hydropower and wind, but also non-renewable energy and shipping sectors that are moving to exploit an ice-free arctic.

A key sector is hydropower, the main source of energy for Norway. GREENICE will work with two hydropower companies in western Norway to incorporate GREENICE prediction results into their future planning on issues related to climate change. We will actively seek other potential stakeholders in Nordic countries from these various sectors with the aim of mobilizing our increased knowledge of future climate change to help plan sustainable, responsible and environmentally-friendly development.

Importantly, stakeholders will provide key input to experimental design, so that their needs are best served by the project.

OBJECTIVES

• Assess and reduce uncertainties in the quantitative description of the interaction between climate change and the cryosphere, focusing on the impact of sea-ice and snow-cover changes on large-scale atmospheric circulation and weather extremes.




• Provide better constrained predictions of near-term (10-30 year) changes in Northern Hemisphere climate and associated weather extremes, by using improved knowledge and atmospheric models driven by projected Arctic sea-ice and Northern Hemisphere snow-cover changes.




• Share research results concerning the uncertainties of Northern Hemisphere climate change with stakeholders and northern communities, and integrate and relate knowledge of potential impacts in terms of key economic and social factors relevant to the welfare and sustainable development of these communities and the Nordic region.




• Better understand the present and historical adaptation of Arctic communities to rapid weather, sea-ice and resource-governance events, and to include local experience-based knowledge-holders in dialogue with researchers and stakeholders.

And now TRACE?