Workshop on Predictability of Climate in the North Atlantic Sector
June 11-13th 2014, Bergen (Norway)

Themes and motivation

Near-term predictions have consistently shown skill for upper ocean temperature over the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region. Skill in regions to the north and south, and of climate itself is less clear. The aim of this workshop was to advance understanding of predictability in the North Atlantic Sector. The workshop is supported from three different projects: PRACTICE (SKD), EPOCASA (NORKLIMA) and GREENICE (NordForsk). It had two main themes:

To what extent can oceanic predictability be extended?

Here mechanisms that may be known from observations, but may not be properly included in the prediction models were discussed. The observed northward propagation of heat content anomalies in the Nordic Seas is an example. In this context, exploring the application of mechanistic understanding to improve and verify models is of interest. Another relevant issue is the great potential to enhance prediction skill through application of advanced initialisation schemes and through reducing model systematic error.

Predictability of atmospheric teleconnections

A number of recent studies indicate that the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic Arctic sector is impacted by SST variations in the North Atlantic and over the tropics, but also by arctic sea ice and Eurasian snow cover. Controversy exists, however, on the relative importance of these various factors and their significance compared to internal atmospheric variability. The results also appear dependent on model configurations, such as the representation of stratosphere-troposphere coupling. Apart from discussing these issues, an aim of the workshop was to design a coordinated set of atmospheric model experiments to assess the relative importance of these various factors. Coordinated experiments with four different models will be performed in the GREENICE project. We hope the workshop will encourage other interested parties to participate.

Organising committee:
Noel Keenlyside (UIB), Tor Eldevik (UiB), Mahaut de Vareilles (UiB), Camille Li (Uni Research), Anne Britt Sandø (IMR)

Attendees:

  • Juergen Bader (MPI-Met)
  • Mats Bentsen (Uni Research)
  • Laurent Bertino (NERSC)
  • Ingo Bethke (Uni Research)
  • Alberto Carrassi (NERSC)
  • Laura Ciasto (UiB)
  • François Counillon (NERSC)
  • Arnaud Czaja (Imperial College London)
  • Tore Furevik (BCCR)
  • Yongqi Gao (NERSC)
  • Hjálmar Hátun (FMRI)
  • Momme Hell (GEOMAR)
  • Paul Hezel (UiB)
  • Ralf Jaiser (AWI)
  • Jee-Hoon Jeong (JNU)
  • Ina Kindem (BKK)
  • Martin King (Uni Research)
  • Torben Koenigk (SMHI)
  • Paul Kushner (UToronto)
  • Helene Langehaug (NERSC)
  • Gudrun Magnusdottir (UCI)
  • Daniela Matei (MPI-Met)
  • Kjell Arne Mork (IMR)
  • Hisashi Nakamura (UTokyo)
  • Nour-Eddine Omrani (GEOMAR)
  • Yvan Orsolini (NILU)
  • Chloé Prodhomme (IC3)
  • Jon Robson (Uread)
  • Semjon Schimanke (SMHI)
  • Vladimir Semenov (GEOMAR)
  • Retish Senan (UiO)
  • Mao-Lin Shen (UiB)
  • Øystein Skagseth (IMR)
  • Stefan Soboloswki (Uni Research)
  • Julienne Stroeve (NSIDC)
  • Thomas Toniazzo (Uni Research)
  • Yiguo Wang (NERSC)
  • Justin Wettstein (CEOAS)
  • Tim Woollings (Oxford)
  • Shuting Yang (DMI)
  • Shaoqing Zhang (GFDL/NOAA)

Presentations:

These are located on our Results page: HERE.